Texas Real Estate vs the National Market
by Doug Shanahan, April 2022.
Why does it seem we only hear about the national market real estate trends in the media and not our local Texas market?
We hear about the U.S. real estate market and how the National Association of Realtors reports the statistics on a national level. What we don’t often hear about is our Texas market and how we differ from the U.S. market as a whole. For instance, National Association of Realtor’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, in his latest report from April 12, 2022, opined, “…Higher mortgage rates will inevitably pull home sales down in the coming months and slow home price appreciation. My projection, at the moment, is for a 10% reduction in home sales this year, and a 5% home price gain by the year’s end.”
Simply put, Texas doesn’t follow the U.S. market.
In February 2022, the national existing homes median sales price was $357,300, a 15.0% year-over-year increase, had 1.7 months of inventory, and sales both decreased 7.2% from January 2022 and 2.4% from a year ago. In contrast, in February 2022 Texas’ existing homes median sales price was $325,000, a 18.6% year-over-year increase, had 1.1 months of inventory, and sales both increased 8.8% from January 2022 and 14.2% from a year ago.
Vast differences in Texas market compared to U.S.
Yun reports that the market is going to have a 10% decrease from 2021. However, if Yun’s national estimates for a decrease are overlaid on our Texas market, the year-over-year sales will have to drop-off substantially for the next three quarters to end up with a 10% reduction this year. With ongoing price increases, a 10% reduction in home sales really doesn’t makes sense in a Texas market with drastically less inventory than the national market.
To the point, The Lone Star State is not the rest of the United States. Texas and its local markets are understandably different from the rest of the nation. Housing pricing in Texas is trending upwards in nearly all local and statewide markets. Increasing housing prices, coupled with a declining inventory, leads to a robust seller's market here in Texas for 2022. See chart below.
The take away is to have guidance. Someone by your side who understands the Texas trends and your local market; especially your own neighborhood. Choose a real estate agent who studies the the area markets and how it affects your home’s sales price.
For your viewing pleasure, Doug has carefully curated residential market trends below. To learn more about market stats in your neighborhood, or for an in-depth valuation of your home now, reach out to Doug Shanahan at Real Estate Man DFW. He's ready to work for you today!
To learn more about market trends in your neighborhood, reach out to Doug Shanahan at Real Estate Man DFW. If you are a seller or buyer and need help navigating these high-demand, low-supply waters, Doug can help make your real estate sale or purchase a great experience.